For the container ship market, 2019 will face great uncertainty. The additional costs caused by the sulphur cap and the supply and demand balance problems caused by the large number of new large container ships delivered mean that 2019 will be a challenging year.

Drewry, the shipping consultancy, said yesterday that the industry was facing high levels of uncertainty amid headwinds that could be the highest in a decade. The range of uncertainty includes the additional costs associated with the IMO 2020 sulphur rules, the compensation that operators receive from shippers, the possibility of a trade downturn and unknown players in large ship-building schemes.

The latest data released by container shipping data provider Container Trade Statistics (CTS) shows that the global container volume in the first two months of 2019 decreased by about 2.1% compared with the same period last year. Except for the European market, many markets showed different degrees of decline. CTS believes that the decrease in cargo volume cannot be explained solely by the impact of the Sino-US trade war, because the decline in cargo volume is "global".

Maersk Line's chief executive, Alfred Schöller, previously said that demand growth in the container industry this year is only 1-3%. However, unlike Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen is optimistic, expecting global demand growth in the container industry to be 4.1-4% this year and 4.9% in 2020.

Mr. Soren's forecast is likely to be more accurate based on data from the previous two months, with the World Trade Organisation sending a downbeat signal when it cut its forecast for global growth from 3.7 per cent to 2.6 per cent.

In the five-year forecast for London's Container Forecaster magazine, container port throughput in each region is expected to grow each year, albeit at a slightly slower rate than Drewry had previously expected. In addition, supply growth is expected to be lower than demand growth through 2023, which will help in ongoing efforts to rebalance the oversupplied market. Drewry expects the industry to be close to equilibrium in 2023, with a global supply and demand index of 97.1.

Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry and editor of Container Forecaster, said: "Our analysis makes it clear that operators must improve fuel returns or there will be serious consequences."

"What gives us confidence for tomorrow is that, despite weak supply and demand fundamentals, operators managed to secure slightly higher freight rates last year, demonstrating their ability to exercise a greater degree of pricing power. We expect the IMO to increase fuel costs in the sector by around 50 per cent in 2020, which will help keep operators running."

Drewry expects there will be strong resistance from shippers to the new fuel surcharge formula, but with the market accepting responsibility sharing more widely and shipping companies starting to negotiate solutions with shippers early on, operators may be more successful than in the past, with time to resolve any teething issues.

"Most shippers acknowledge they have to pay more, but they have reason to expect a credible and reliable mechanism for any increase, in other words, the initiative is in the hands of the operators," Heaney said.